One of the most powerful tools in creating a winter forecast is to compare the expected upcoming atmospheric pattern to similar conditions during previous seasons. Because temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric data is readily available for these years, they can provide insight into what the weather pattern may bring for this winter. Aside from similarities between the phase and strength of seasonal oscillations (such as El Niño, North Atlantic / Arctic Oscillations, etc…) all years used in the upcoming analysis have either had similar global circula- tion patterns to 2014 thus far, or are likely to evolve in a similar manner in the near future. In order to ensure data accuracy and consistency, years prior to 1950 were not considered.

The following forecast is based on a combination of the factors listed in the first several pages of this outlook. Al- though the basis of the forecast is heavily weighted towards the scenario or analog year classification, it also takes into account both subjective and objective modifications that account for the evolution of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) as well as other atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Additionally, the forecast was adjusted to maintain continuity (or persistence) with current atmospheric conditions, where appropriate. Also note that although the following serves as a general guideline for the entire winter season, there may be several periods that waiver in one way or another from the forecast. More specific information in terms of monthly breakdowns or possible timing of significant weather events will be made, when possible, in next month’s full forecast.